/> ShareJunction - Member Posts
logo transparent gif
top_left_edge top_white_spacer top_right_edge
Home Latest Stock Forum Topics MyCorner - Personal Stocks Porfolio Stock Lists Forex Investor Insights Investment News Investor Research & Links Dynamic Stock Charting FREE Registration About Us top spacer top spacer
 User Password Auto-Login
Enter Stock
 
righttip
branding

Back

Latest Posts By Peter_Pan - Supreme      About Peter_Pan
First   < Newer   1401-1420 of 4497   Older>   Last  

02-Sep-2013 09:38 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Now is to see what will be Indoagri's offer price...if above $1...Glaucus can go holland liao...
Good Post  Bad Post 
02-Sep-2013 09:04 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Siao liao...
Good Post  Bad Post 
02-Sep-2013 08:55 Olam Intl   /   OLAM_OLAM       Go to Message
x 0
x 1
Muddy Waters, LLC
www.muddywatersresearch.com
info@muddywatersresearch.com
Olam International: Strong Sell
September 2, 2013
Director of Research: Carson C. Block, Esq. 
Not Changing the Old Ways
We continue to believe that, in a world where capital is allocated to maximize economic 
efficiency, Olam?s shares have no value. The Company has simply borrowed too much 
money, and then invested in projectsthat will not generate sufficient returns to repay its 
debt obligations. In this note, we will only briefly comment on Olam?s FY 2013 results. 
(Numerous analysts have already done so.) Instead, we will focus on qualitative points 
that cause us to believe Olam is not really turning over a new leaf.
Olam?s FY 2013 results display the pathologies we noted in November 2012:
? Adjusted return on average assets was only 1.8%. (We adjusted net income to 
S$261.8 million by excluding from Olam?s operational profit after tax all 
biological gains and changes in measurement of derivatives.
1
For an explanation 
of how and why we make adjustments to Olam?s net income, see our initial report 
dated November 26, 2012.)
? Allowance for doubtful accounts more than halved from S$22.6 million to S$9.6 
million, which made FY 2013 a less unfavorable a comparison to FY 2012.
? Inventory write-downs were only S$115,000, versus S$15 million last year, which 
also made FY 2013 a less unfavorable comparison to FY 2012.
? Free cash burn was S$800.4 million, and Olam spent S$1.1 billion on acquisitions 
and investments in FY 2013.
The big picture issue is that we are skeptical Olam will operate differently in the future.
? There have been no changes to the board since our initial report. This board had 
been complacent, at best, as Olam went on its borrowing and spending binge. It 
was evidently more concerned with the messenger than the message when we first 
spoke critically of the Company. 
Olam?s board has ossified. The average tenure of Olam?s independent directors is 
11.4 years. Olam?s IPO was only eight years ago. Only one independent director 
1
We do not ignore asset impairment charges because we see these as a likely understated, and recurring 
function of Olam?s business.
Page 2has been appointed since Olam?s IPO, and that was five years ago. These 
gentlemen have become too vested in Olam?s mistakes to deal with them 
effectively.
? CEO Sunny Verghese said nothing during the call, which might be interpreted as 
the Company transitioning to a future without Mr. Verghese. However, what 
would really change if Mr. Verghese were no longer CEO? Olam has a tightknit 
? probably insular ? core of top managers who have worked together for many 
years. Were the Company?s new leadership to come from the existing pool of top 
management, which seems to lack diversity of views, what would really change? 
? Olam continued to essentially invent its own performance metricsin a 
continuation of past less-than-best practices. For the FY 2013 results, Olam
altered its definition of free cash flow, thereby excluding cash interest, taxes, and 
certain working capital account changes. (Our initial report explains the 
irrelevance of Olam?s invented gross and net contribution metrics.)
? Olam was asked what its average cost of debt is, and Mr. Anatharaman did not 
answer the question with any specificity.
? More birds in the bush are better than one in the hand. Olam steadfastly refuses 
to provide real transparency into the Gabon fertilizer project. Reading between 
the lines, Tata Chemicals (?TCL?) is highly unlikely to participate in the project. 
Rather than acknowledging this, Olam stated that it is happily looking for more 
possible partners who are willing to buy in (so that Olam can sell down). We 
believe the reality is that TCL no longer views the project as attractive (if it ever 
did). Our recommendation is that Olam fall on the sword, admit to investors it 
wasted significant money on dredging, and terminate the project.
? This brings up perhaps the most significant point: Despite Olam?s new strategic 
plan that calls for capital spending to be curtailed (notwithstanding the Company 
responding to our initial criticism by defiantly pledging to increase capex and 
investment), Olam has not admitted having had a problem. In other words, the 
Company has not acknowledged that it made a number of investments that will 
not ?gestate? into returns in excess of their costs. It is well settled that the road to 
any recovery begins with an acknowledgement that a problem exists. We have 
yet to hear anything of thissort from Olam. Investors really need to understand 
why this problem exists, and how the Company proposes to fix it. Lacking this 
transparency, investors have no basis to form opinions as to whether the Company 
is likely to improve its performance.
Good Post  Bad Post 
02-Sep-2013 07:16 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Seriously...this time really tua ho tua pai liao
Good Post  Bad Post 
02-Sep-2013 07:03 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Pending release of material announcement
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 21:27 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Glaucus should be looking through the Response at the moment. Sunday burnt liao...
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 21:00 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		CMZ's Response looks very strong. Now must watch out for Glaucus's counter, if any.
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 19:35 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Tomorrow may have chance to make some fast trades for the risk-takers bah!!??!!

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 14:21) Posted:

Must study CMZ's Response and wait and see whether Glaucus counter respond again. Let them fight it out first until dust settles.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 31-Aug-2013 19:37) Posted:

Hope the management is confident enough to lift trading halt and may need to standby fire-power to support the price. Else if price plunge further..halt again meh? Then will be really worse for investors' confidence liao
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 19:20 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Tonight i'm going to burn midnight oil!!!

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 19:13) Posted:

Tomorrow......
Some stand by guns!
Some stand by bullets!

Huat arh!!!
大 家 发 ！ ！ ！





Peter_Pan      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 19:08) Posted:

CMZ's Response is out!!! Tomorrow trading halt will be lifted!!!
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 19:08 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		CMZ's Response is out!!! Tomorrow trading halt will be lifted!!!
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 18:06 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 1 		If really no Response by 2359 and go for suspension, will be another blow to shareholders because CMZ promised by end of this week!!!

triphopper      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 17:58) Posted:



Why would this S-chip be any different from the others just because GIC invested in it previously. I suspect the rebuttal report will not be out by end of today and the counter will request for suspension.

It can only be saved by a white knight that is willing to pump in more money (similar to ChinaAOil?).
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 17:53 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		I think views and action plans are not the priority at this stage now. Facts and proofs of evidence of innocence are what investors are waiting for from CMZ.

BMW320      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 17:42) Posted:

Right. But again, in today business, watever you hve to say, the other party will sure have their own views.

At the end of the day, what most impt, is the action plan by the mgmt and how they can restore confidence in their investor which will ride them through the storm.

Last but not least, CMZ uses one the largest and leading auditor, Crowe Howarth LLP - (Not one man show auditor). Do have some faith in them.

Cheers

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 01-Sep-2013 17:02) Posted:

I guess CMZ may have to check every subsidaries and accounts thoroughly...cannot afford to suffer another attack anymore after market value wiped out half. If they are not 100% accurate in their Response and lift the halt, investors' money are at risk if Glaucus has somemore evidence to release to catch CMZ by surprise.
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 17:02 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		I guess CMZ may have to check every subsidaries and accounts thoroughly...cannot afford to suffer another attack anymore after market value wiped out half. If they are not 100% accurate in their Response and lift the halt, investors' money are at risk if Glaucus has somemore evidence to release to catch CMZ by surprise.
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 16:25 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Glaucus may not have played its last cards..
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 16:08 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Are they really sure everything on their side is swee swee when they rebuke the allegations? How come Response can take so long still don't want to release???
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 15:57 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Making investors wait so long for the Response???
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 14:21 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Must study CMZ's Response and wait and see whether Glaucus counter respond again. Let them fight it out first until dust settles.

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 31-Aug-2013 19:37) Posted:

Hope the management is confident enough to lift trading halt and may need to standby fire-power to support the price. Else if price plunge further..halt again meh? Then will be really worse for investors' confidence liao!

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 31-Aug-2013 16:28) Posted:



If resume trading...Prediction: 70% chance drop another 10-20%



Prediction: 30% chance rise 10-15%   


Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 13:47 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Sgx website up..still no release??
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 08:18 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		Sgx website closed for maintenance.
Good Post  Bad Post 
01-Sep-2013 00:36 China Minzhong   /   China Minzhong Food forum       Go to Message
x 0
x 0 		2359...
Good Post  Bad Post 
First   < Newer   1401-1420 of 4497   Older>   Last  



ShareJunction Version: 27 Nov 2020 ver - All Rights Reserved. Copyright ShareJunction Pte. Ltd. Disclaimer: All prices from are delayed. ShareJunction does not provide you with any financial advice. We are not into the business of providing any investment advice. See our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy of using this website. Data is delayed for varying periods of time depending on the exchange, but for at least 15 minutes. Copyright © SIX Financial Information Ltd. and its licensors. All Rights reserved. Further distribution and use by third parties prohibited. SIX Financial Information and its licensors make no warranty for information displayed and accept no liability for data and prices. SIX Financial Information reserves the right to adapt and/or alter this website at any time without prior notice.

Web design by FoundationFlux. Hosted with Signetique Cloud.