Latest Posts By elfinchilde
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| 02-Oct-2008 13:28 |
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things every retail investor/trader should know
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btw livermore, i should add here that i've always respected you as a fellow forumer. cos even if we have differences of view, you're one of the few who'd put a case based on facts, and you're meticulous and rational enough. all qualities necessary to be a good investor/trader. so hats off to ya. :)
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| 02-Oct-2008 13:17 |
Golden Agri-Res
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Time Bomb - Avoid
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i've never seen a person who could know the future. am just giving the supports as per the charts. ppl need to keep in mind that supports/resistances are just that, lines. Up or down depends on price-volume action. am still bearish on commods myself, tho i do think that 8c for gar is too low. its NAV is US 43c. PAT was 100% return for the last half year. US investment banks are vested parties. It is a fallacy to think they are unbiased in their 'predictions'. as to what happened to them: overleverage. Lehman brothers had 154% of its equity in mortgage-backed securities as early as Nov 07. Completely separate issue. i'm simply presenting the facts. people can read for themselves. Go to SGX website for the ARs, SJ provides the charts, bloomberg and Dow Jones provides the news. In other words, the elf child will not be bothered with such ad hominems as per quoted post. They are baseless, frivolous, show no substance nor rationality. They do nothing except breed negative emotions. For a person to be respected, he must make sense, he must conduct himself in a manner appropriate to a public place. Otherwise, it shows only two things: immaturity and a lack of class.
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| 02-Oct-2008 11:57 |
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Forex Junction
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yea concur. it's just scalping between the psych levels actually. requires a lot of watching tho. or mebbe that's just me. hehe. 
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| 02-Oct-2008 11:55 |
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/10/forward-look.html here. on request from some of you. profit made for the day. sleepy. PMs, pls wait. i need to get back to bed.
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| 02-Oct-2008 10:36 |
CapitaLand
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CapitaLand: Too early to bottom fish
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counter still very weak. not yet time to buy if you're lkg for longterm. | ||
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| 02-Oct-2008 10:31 |
Golden Agri-Res
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Time Bomb - Avoid
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Before ppl start panicking.... more precisely, the technical supports for GAr are: this current zone 28-31c. Then the 22c zone, which it held for 12 weeks from Aug-Nov 06. This being a strong support. only then do we reach the 17-18c zone mentioned. |
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| 01-Oct-2008 18:21 |
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hey livermore, thanks. :) always appreciate your opinions. :) commods/infrastructure: not necessarily. commodities are meant for export market. they are the raw material which people import, process, and create finished products to export. the biggest export country to which most Asian countries send to is the US, which is due for a prolonged recession. It is for this reason i am bearish on china plays too. Those talking about china's spectacular growth and domestic demand, don't have a real handle on the numbers. The fact is that china's domestic demand cannot make up for their slowing exports to the US. ie, China's growth is slowing because US is slowing consumption. infrastructure however, may be meant for domestic. The things that people need, irregardless of recession. Things like roads, railways, telephone lines.Office spaces. Steel. That will in future be the hardware for growth. ie, critical infrastructure. ie, within a one-two year timeframe, if what you are betting on is a US recession, then it points to commods down. If what you are betting on is a US slow recovery, it is still commods down. So here's an interesting question for people to consider. If it is a global recession now, and you have cash and reserves (as asian countries do), what would your next step be? Increase exports, or scale back? And if you scale back, what will you put the money to, in preparation for the future? Isn't it *logical* to spend the money to improve the hardware of your country. So that when money markets unfreeze, the foreign investment dollar is attracted back again. Isn't it the very Asian thing to do. (eg, in a recession, when most are jobless, what do a lot of ppl do? Go for further degrees. Why? To upgrade themselves, so that in future, they have an edge in the market. Now apply this same logic to the stock market.) very long term, of course, commods will go up again. But before that, in light of logic, how much further will it fall? Crude is tipped to fall to 70-80. CPO will definitely follow. A further 25% at least, in my estimates. The baltic index (key measure of commods export, hence growth) has dropped 70% from its peak this year. What does the trend say? In other words, commods are a growth play. Infrastructure, however, is a value play. And this is the difference on FA. The charts bear it out. We all know the classic chart pattern of a growth play. I have never seen one that deviated. edit: i should also note here that i'm bearish on gold currently. it's likely on its last run. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 17:12 |
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and the day's done. we closed +4.01. gap up taken. HSI closed +135, btw. capland managed to gap up too. not a bad sign for this poor baby. 
now it's left to the rest of the days. i need to sleep. watched the DJIA to its close yest and woke up early to fish this morning. tired liao.
byes, folks. 
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| 30-Sep-2008 16:57 |
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eh, relax lah tradechancellor....don't get too excited....hehe. hope you're applying well what i taught? cool seeing it live eh? :) back to biz: i suspect there may be gap ups after the closing bell for some counters. amongst them: sci, ocbc, capland and sgx. let's see if it is. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 16:28 |
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lol, tradechancellor, i see you're as excited. :P as a techie, it's a solid key reversal though, which is why it's exciting. how often can you see the STI drop 100 pts and reverse the entire loss? This is what i was posting about earlier in this thread, as well as in my blog, about why a strong case for bottoming can be made. Note tho, that even if we have bottomed, recovery can still take years. So let's not be delusional and scream for bull. The bull years are gone, let's face that. Window dressing: depends. you really need to sort out the lot. If you know what you're buying for, risk is lessened. ie, short scalp, or longterm hold? Why were they buying? It's a mixed board, so i really can't speak for all counters. Either way, if you'd manage to scoop near bottom today, your actual risk is actually low. eg, If your risk/reward ratio is 2: 1, it means you can afford to lose 50% of your trades, and you'll still be positive. This is all part of money management and portfolio strategy. where i moved my funds to. shh. check your PM. :P (and pls, don't just follow....)
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| 30-Sep-2008 16:06 |
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hehe. the correct answer to that, trader88, is that i hold a shifting allocation in my portfolio. ie, a % division among short and longterm counters. as accord to my own risk profile. (cos i know i'll just die of anxiety if i do 100% rapids.  )
this % division among short and longterm remains unchanged. because it is part of initial money management strategies. so i used what was allocated for shortterm scalps today, as well as picked up more of my longterm baby. So money management is fully intact and according to plan. 
hope you're doing well like this fella too -->  !! |
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| 30-Sep-2008 15:59 |
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heya colorado, missed your reply on the thread earlier. how're you doing?
i think i really shd get moving on a course. lol. meanwhile, look at the old STI, folks! we're only -10! c'mon baby, take the gap! |
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| 30-Sep-2008 15:54 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve may need to consider dipping further into its toolbox as Congress tries to revive legislation aimed at rescuing banks. One of the main remaining options for Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to cushion the economy and shore up confidence in financial markets is cutting the benchmark interest rate, economists said. A reduction may be coordinated with other central banks. ``It certainly increases the chance of us going to 1.50 in short order'' from the current 2 percent benchmark rate, said Keith Hembre, chief economist at Minneapolis-based FAF Advisors Inc., which oversees $112 billion. ``Unemployment is likely to continue rising, I think the inflation pressures are dissipating very quickly, and you've got turmoil in the financial markets.'' ``Those all argue for another rate cut,'' said Hembre, a former Minneapolis Fed researcher. ------------ yea. silly americans. don't want to pay 700bil, now they had 1.2 TRILLION wiped off their market in one night alone. and have to do rate cuts plus other stuff. including having ruined their global credibility for a long time. on the plus side, once and for all may be a good thing. it's good to see the STI being resilient to all these american crap. as we speak, it's only down 15 points. c'mon baby, take the gap!! 
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| 30-Sep-2008 15:48 |
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i know. i moved quite a % of my own capital today. i'm a happy bug.
methinks it may be more than just window dressing tho, for some counters. others remain weak. but whatever. i vote today the easiest tech play of the year.
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| 30-Sep-2008 15:21 |
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note divergence amongst the counters now: pennies and china plays are faltering again. some of the blues holding. foreign names both buying and selling, incl european names now. those int, watch the patterns. credit lyonnais in sembcorp. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 15:05 |
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and 2nd round of play starts. capland going down again. hehe. note: capland is still not a buy for the longterm. where i would personally consider a longterm buy (my own criteria, fitting both TA and FA): at or below NAV, or if it's a blue, a reasonable ratio to NAV. Earnings proven. Potential growth proven. Dividend yield at least 5%. Technically, it must have resisted bottom and pinged up at least twice (ie, survived all the major bad news in the past few months). ST engg is an eg of the last: note how it has successfully pinged off the 246-248 lowest since jul 08. Those who purport themselves to be "longterm players": your buys should be just as long spaced out, bought only at bottom, in disciplined strikes. And not buy on monday, buy on wednesday, buy on friday. And for the record, STE's NAV is 47c. so no, even st engg doesn't fit my criteria fully. hehe. |
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| 30-Sep-2008 13:46 |
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hey novicex, no prob. thanks to tradechancellor and all too for their support. :) hehe, actually, i'm not frustrated. a little annoyed, yes; but otherwise, this is the market. i'm mostly detached emotionally. it's an old saying: "plan your trade and trade your plan." if you check back, and it's all going according to plan, what's the worry? that's how i keep a clear head and vision. and yups, having an open mind is important. notice that i've never once said i'm right and others are wrong: what i simply do, is to present the facts as i see it (which is where the bias may come in), so that others can make up their own minds. that's why i always emphasise the caveat part, and to make one's own judgment. it's impossible to be 100% right all the time, and that's the truth. yes, des_khor is right on one thing: sentiment. which is where sentiment analysis comes in. To avoid behaving like the herd, one needs to have a clear strategy, mind and the guts to implement it. You need to know yourself, your own risk level, what you can stomach, what you can't. there's a post i did on my blog, about personality (believe i titled it 'the trend is your friend'). newbies should really pay attention to that, and not 'hot tips' or even TA or FA. Right at the start, it is self knowledge that is important. There's one thing that's always bugged me though: most singaporeans do not have the correct FA concept of 'value'. I mean, they see "value" in china stocks, in commods, in the blues.You just need to ask them if they've ever read the ARs of the companies they see 'value' in. In strict FA terms, most of these are actually overvalued. Yes, even now. They're growth counters or range play counters, not value counters. I've read so many ARs, and i can only find 2 value counters worth considering. What does that tell you? So that's a common misconception that needs to be addressed. cheers! |
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| 30-Sep-2008 13:07 |
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i seem to remember des_khor having strong buy calls for china counters this whole while. finally got cold feet, eh? ;) (may i note here i've been bearish on china counters except as rapid scalps since jul or so.) charts: i'm just presenting it as it is. And note, i did not say DEFINITELY bottom. I said a strong case for bottom can be made IF we can close the gap. ie, if we do not close the gap, it is still down. why the gap is impt: because macros-wise: it would mean the STI has twice rebounded from lowest to close 2,350, despite global bad sentiment. ie, buyer support. for techies, it can't get any clearer than that. Of course, what kind of recovery it'll be, is another matter altogether. May take years. Drifting, drifting, drifting. As to why i bother posting on forums. yah, sometimes i don't know also. have missed many trade signals while updating posts and helping panicked newbies everytime the market goes down. waste of time, isn't it, giving information to ungrateful people? giant investment banks: if you'd bothered to read my posts, i've already said so many times why you should never believe all these banks. how can anyone trust someone who's a BB to make an unbiased call. (-_-"). haha. but to each his own. the market proves in the end. cheers! |
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| 30-Sep-2008 12:12 |
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http://elfinchilde.blogspot.com/2008/09/case-for-bottoming.html here. for those who need the graphical interpretation of my post below. (hmm, i didn't draw the downward channel very well; but it'll do. pay attention to the support lines and candles formed). |
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| 30-Sep-2008 11:56 |
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if STI can take the gapup and close 2,350 today, it's surest sign of bottom: twice tested on heavy events but recovered. on condition that 2350 is beaten today. |
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