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But alas, he is not at all chun, having to revise his predictions which swing so wildly between his 2004 call for a Dow of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010 and his 2009 interview calling for the Dow to drop to 3,800. even as 2010 still not yet reached.
If at least his prediction is off-mark by +/- 10 to 20%, I think it would still be acceptable.
dealer0168 ( Date: 23-Aug-2009 16:29) Posted:
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If Dent is so chun, he is GOD already. Hahaha.
He only makes his own point. Emm currently i would say he is speculating (as things haven't surface up).
Let monitor the global financial with our own hard work. Do our own study is the best.
Cheers.
richtan ( Date: 23-Aug-2009 16:23) Posted:
Extracted from below:
"If Dent indeed holds this position, it would be interesting to ask him how his predictions could swing so wildly between his 2004 call for a Dow of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010 and his 2009 interview calling for the Dow to drop to 3,800."
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Extracted from below:
The scenarios of extreme pessimists, like Harry Dent (who were recently extreme optimists), generally ignore innovation altogether or predict that innovation has basically come to an end. In an interview just a month ago in the Minneapolis-St. Paul StarTribune, Mr. Dent ended by saying that innovation will not have much impact in the next couple of decades, because new innovation from here will just be incremental, not revolutionary.
He said "The iPhone's going to get better, broadband is going to get better, but you don't get the same impact from those improvements that you do from the adoptions of computers and cell phones." In other words, he sees only "sustaining innovation," not truly "disruptive innovation," in the terminology developed by Clayton Christensen. Harry Dent basically believes that innovation is tied to impersonal cycles just like everything else, and when the innovation cycle is on the way down, innovation will not make much impact.
This is as foolish as the apocryphal story of the Patent Office Commissioner who supposedly suggested to President McKinley that the US close the Patent Office in 1899, because "everything that could be invented had already been invented."
Not only do we not believe that innovation is bound up by multi-decade cycles as Dent argues, but we believe that the evidence shows that the pace of innovation increases over time. In fact, inventor and entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil, whom the Wall Street Journal calls "the restless genius" and Forbes magazine calls "the ultimate thinking machine," has observed that the pace of innovation increases not in a linear fashion but rather in an exponential fashion
richtan ( Date: 23-Aug-2009 16:23) Posted:
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"If Dent indeed holds this position, it would be interesting to ask him how his predictions could swing so wildly between his 2004 call for a Dow of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010 and his 2009 interview calling for the Dow to drop to 3,800."
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Extracted from below:
"If Dent indeed holds this position, it would be interesting to ask him how his predictions could swing so wildly between his 2004 call for a Dow of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010 and his 2009 interview calling for the Dow to drop to 3,800."
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Analyst revision of predictions is very common, thus why I just read at face-value, still dyodd and analyse chart myself, at least if I m wrong, I can slap myself but if I follow him and if he is wrong, I can't possibly slap him.
OMG, such a drastic turn, 360 degrees, haven't even reach his extremely bold unimaginable prediction of "38,000 to 40,000 by 2010" and now he is so fickle-minded to revise downwards to another extreme of 3,800 (OMG, another great depression, hope not in my lifetime or even my children's lifetime), better than David Copperfield's magic and reminds me of Dr. Doom, Marc Faber.
He obviously had overshot his prediction of "38,000 to 40,000 by 2010", so now will he also overshot his prediction of 3,800 or mkt proves him wrong and continues upward but may not reach his original unimaginable prediction of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010, seems extremely far-fetched.
I rather trust my own TA chart analysis, how to trust him, dun be surprised b4 late summer, he might issue another predicction of 100,000.. hahahahaha......
Extracted from below:
"Dent declared, "stocks have to go back to about 3800" (presumably he means 3800 on the Dow, which Dent uses for most of his predictions, such as his statement in 2004 that "we are still predicting a Dow as high as 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010" -- see The Next Great Bubble Boom by the same author)."
smartrader ( Date: 23-Aug-2009 15:13) Posted:
The feverishly anti-business tone coming out of Washington, as well as the promise of greatly expanded government intrusion into industries from health care to energy, the prospect of significantly higher taxes in years ahead, and the threat of tremendously expanded government spending and budget deficits, has many investors wondering if we are heading for an economic re-run of the 1970s, or worse. A new book out from demographic prognosticator Harry S. Dent, entitled The Great Depression Ahead, paints a grim picture of deflation, depression and economic decline in the US and advises readers to invest in China and India. In a recent interview about the book, Dent declared, "stocks have to go back to about 3800" (presumably he means 3800 on the Dow, which Dent uses for most of his predictions, such as his statement in 2004 that "we are still predicting a Dow as high as 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010" -- see The Next Great Bubble Boom by the same author). Dire scenarios like Dent's are getting plenty of traction these days, and the economic mis-steps in government make it easy to fall into despair about the road ahead. However, as we have written before, even in times of excessive government intrusion and economic malaise, such as the 1970s in this country, there are well-run companies that are creating new fields of growth or taking advantage of major paradigm shifts, and investors would be wise to seek them out rather than just owning the "entire market" as often counseled by " wealth managers". Those who believe, like Harry Dent, that economic prosperity is governed by blind cycles outside of human control miss the central role that innovation plays in economic progress. In his most recent book, Dent states: "The truth is that Newton was right in his theory of simple and clock-like cycles. [. . .] Our economy has peaked every forty years, like clockwork-- and commodity prices have peaked every thirty years. The early part of most decades starts off weak, even in boom times. Every four years the stock market tends to take a significant correction, and about every four months it often does so again on a more minor scale" (pages 3-4). If Dent indeed holds this position, it would be interesting to ask him how his predictions could swing so wildly between his 2004 call for a Dow of 38,000 to 40,000 by 2010 and his 2009 interview calling for the Dow to drop to 3,800. Noted Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter held almost the opposite view from Dent's deterministic model. He held that free enterprise continues to create greater and greater progress, not by choice but by necessity. He wrote that the free operation of individuals and businesses within any given industry "incessantly revolutionizes the economic structure from within, incessantly destroying the old one, incessantly creating a new one" -- that business in a capitalistic system "not only never is but never can be stationary." This is an incredibly important truth for investors to understand, and it is why we are confident that innovation will be the engine that continues to drive prosperity, even in spite of the clumsy and unnecessary government intrusions which will probably be on the rise for the near future. The scenarios of extreme pessimists, like Harry Dent (who were recently extreme optimists), generally ignore innovation altogether or predict that innovation has basically come to an end. In an interview just a month ago in the Minneapolis-St. Paul StarTribune, Mr. Dent ended by saying that innovation will not have much impact in the next couple of decades, because new innovation from here will just be incremental, not revolutionary. He said "The iPhone's going to get better, broadband is going to get better, but you don't get the same impact from those improvements that you do from the adoptions of computers and cell phones." In other words, he sees only "sustaining innovation," not truly "disruptive innovation," in the terminology developed by Clayton Christensen. Harry Dent basically believes that innovation is tied to impersonal cycles just like everything else, and when the innovation cycle is on the way down, innovation will not make much impact. This is as foolish as the apocryphal story of the Patent Office Commissioner who supposedly suggested to President McKinley that the US close the Patent Office in 1899, because "everything that could be invented had already been invented." Not only do we not believe that innovation is bound up by multi-decade cycles as Dent argues, but we believe that the evidence shows that the pace of innovation increases over time. In fact, inventor and entrepreneur Ray Kurzweil, whom the Wall Street Journal calls "the restless genius" and Forbes magazine calls "the ultimate thinking machine," has observed that the pace of innovation increases not in a linear fashion but rather in an exponential fashion (see graph below).  In his 2005 book The Singularity is Near, Kurzweil says: "The future is widely misunderstood. Our forebears expected it to be pretty much like their present, which had been pretty much like their past. Exponential trends did exist one thousand years ago, but they were at that very early stage in which they were so flat and so slow that they looked like no trend at all. As a result, observers' expectations of an unchanged future were fulfilled. Today, we anticipate continuous technological progress and the social repercussions that follow. But the future will be far more surprising than most people realize, because few observers have truly internalized the implications of the fact that the rate of change itself is accelerating" (pages 10-11). In fact, there are many innovations that are going to be quite revolutionary in the years ahead, and we have discussed some of them in previous posts such as this one and this one. We have often stated that we do not make predictions about the next move of the overall market, and we don't suggest that investors try to time economic cycles. We do believe that the prospect of less economic freedom should give investors cause for concern, but we also believe that there will be innovation that will drive growth, and that investors who put forth the effort to seek it out have cause for continued optimism.
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Glad u out this matter to rest but really, we are humans, not robots, so nobody can control anybody nor do I wish to control anybody as I m not tyrannical,.
We can only advice, to accept the advice or not is up to the other party whether he/she is open-minded n receptive but I do hope tat u take a leaf out of all those analyst tactful way of reporting, cautious with their choice of words, frankly it is for your own good.
star-trader ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 23:32) Posted:
Okie, I take your apology.
Well, I always aware that the TA is short,mid and long term analysis..
but notice that i was saying was..
"....but what I am posting is TA short term outlook.."
Anyway, is okay...
rgds, star-trader..
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Wow!!! u only rent lorry truck, hehehe... I more greedy, I rent ship cargo containers.
ronleech ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 22:57) Posted:
Hhahahaha...if i am someone who is influence enough, i will say STI will hit 500pts, DOW going to 1500, sse bottoming out at 888pts...all panic throw, i will rent lorry truck to collect those "junk" all ppl dumping.....well, at the end of the end and by the time all other notice, i already make a pile.... |
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I m not attacking you (if u perceived it as an attack or my phrasing is not tactful enuf, my apology) but recognise the fact tat everyone has the right to post a reply on their views, if your mind is closed n not receptive to feedback, then let the matter rest, case closed, no point tit for tat rebutting, no end to it.
Yes, we are mature enough to do own decisions but are u observant when reading analysts report and agree tat, they are always extremely careful in their choice of words, using words like "probably", "may", "might" bcos they know tat nothing is guaranteed.
I beg to differ, TA is not solely just for short-term outlook, it too encompass mid-term as well as long-term view.
star-trader ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 22:43) Posted:
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Well, i think choice of words like you mentioned, is nobody can control anybody..thus at the first place, you should not have done attack on anyone posting with their own views or choice of words.
As mentioned earlier, the post I replied is not based my ego, is just purely from what I observed from the analysis... and the choice of word I used.
Yup, MIDAS's FA is good, but what I am posting is TA short term outlook (which what the TA should be doing), so if you vested and dun agree with me, that's should be fine.. but the TA Analysis should be interest to others who wants to know what happening on short-term movement and as I literally mentioned, all of you should be mature enough to do own decisions..
rgds, star-trader...
richtan ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 21:58) Posted:
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Hi star-trader,
We must agree to disagree, I have my right to reply to disagree with your choice of words but ultimately, nobody can control anybody, u r free to post your views and use wat words u want, likewise, I m free to voice and reply my view on it.
I m very open-minded n consider all views but I too have the right to reply if imo, i find the choice of words used is inappropriate.
If u u are observant when reading analysts report, u will notice tat they are not egoistic, always extremely careful to use words like "probably", "may", "might" bcos they know tat nothing is guaranteed.
Yes, I m vested but tat does not mean I m afraid that it will go reversal trend for MIDAS though my chart interpretation shows in the mid to long term it is uptrend but short-term it may encounter correction but there is no guarantee tat trends won't change but as long as the trend have not changed, the trend is your friend.
I dun fall in love with any stocks n hold till kingdom comes, the moment i spotted any reversal, I will exit.
I m not afraid that it will go reversal trend as making and cutting losses is part n parcel of trading, thus why I always remember by heart n abide by the 3 mantras I learnt from TA books:
(1) Remember, the trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend, we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) Plan your trade n trade your plan, which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if
later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
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Hi star-trader,
We must agree to disagree, I have my right to reply to disagree with your choice of words but ultimately, nobody can control anybody, u r free to post your views and use wat words u want, likewise, I m free to voice and reply my view on it.
I m very open-minded n consider all views but I too have the right to reply if imo, i find the choice of words used is inappropriate.
If u u are observant when reading analysts report, u will notice tat they are not egoistic, always extremely careful to use words like "probably", "may", "might" bcos they know tat nothing is guaranteed.
Yes, I m vested but tat does not mean I m afraid that it will go reversal trend for MIDAS though my chart interpretation shows in the mid to long term it is uptrend but short-term it may encounter correction but there is no guarantee tat trends won't change but as long as the trend have not changed, the trend is your friend.
I dun fall in love with any stocks n hold till kingdom comes, the moment i spotted any reversal, I will exit.
I m not afraid that it will go reversal trend as making and cutting losses is part n parcel of trading, thus why I always remember by heart n abide by the 3 mantras I learnt from TA books:
(1) Remember, the trend is your friend, never, never go against the trend, we need to know the short-term, mid-term n long term trend n trade accordingly
(2) Plan your trade n trade your plan, which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade
(3) Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if
later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price.
star-trader ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 20:47) Posted:
Hi RichTan, I am fully aware that TA is an art, not a science.. thats why you notice that when i posted on AusGroup, i will update after i posted on reversal trend that it will be on uptrend the next day due to market behaviour if there is indication which I believe it is to be followed as well.. And I said, my "will" is purely my own way of putting things and I don't think I need to be "controlled" by anyone to get me to use any words in order to support your way it should be.. After you put tat replied on this "will" word thinggy, I always ponder if are you afraid that it will go reversal trend for MIDAS as your research is always uptrend? As you are vested? But as I mentioned, everyone is adult enough to make their own decision but not purely on the words that I used , so you do not need to be so agitated by the word someone using... When in terms of the post that I have replied, whether I am humble, whether I am ego... I think what I wanted to proof is I am not just making any posts just for the "kick" of it or just for the "fun" of it.. My post is all with due diligence done on my part, but again, you may not need to follow what I am posted as said. I just wanna to give assist who appreciated my TA analysis, and I don't gain anything from that from you all... So, to say that my ego is there as pride comes b4 a fall, I won't make any comments on this.. rgds, star-trader...
richtan ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 17:44) Posted:
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Hi star-trader,
I m sorry if u feel offended by my reply.
I fully appreciate your sharing but the bone of contention is using such words as "will", "sure".
We agree to disagree, feel free to disagree but minus such strong words like "will" as we are mere mortals without tat super-natural divine powers.
My point is, the modal "will" means "definitely", "sure to happen", but TA is an art, not a science n as I always said not infalible.
The use of the word "may", "probably", "might" would have been more appropriate for "meaning is going to happen from what i see/feel"
Yes, u may be right many times, but tat des not mean u will be 100% right every time, so be humble, do not let your ego gets the better of u as pride comes b4 a fall. |
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Dow Average May Change Name as News Corp. Explores Index Sale
By Sarah Rabil and Lynn Thomasson
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average may get a new name after 113 years, if News Corp. follows through on selling its stock-index business.
The Wall Street Journal, owned by News Corp. since 2007, reported yesterday that the company is exploring a sale of the unit, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. was hired to evaluate deals that may fetch $700 million and prompt a new moniker for the flagship index, the newspaper said. MSCI Inc., a former unit of Morgan Stanley, NYSE Euronext and Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News, are potential candidates, according to the Journal.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, a 30-stock benchmark for the U.S. market referred to as the Dow, was created in 1896 by Dow Jones co-founder Charles Dow. News Corp. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Rupert Murdoch bought Dow Jones, which also includes the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires, in 2007 for $5.2 billion. News Corp. wrote down the value of unit’s goodwill and intangible assets by $2.8 billion in 2008.
“It would be hard to imagine the Dow being called anything else,” said Eric Marshall, who helps oversee $700 million at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas. “It wouldn’t surprise me, given how much the media industry has changed, that someone would want to spin off ownership of the Dow.”
Sybille Reitz, a spokeswoman for Dow Jones, and Teri Everett, of News Corp., declined to comment. Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael Duvally also declined, as did Bloomberg spokeswoman Judith Czelusniak, MSCI spokesman Pen Pendleton, NYSE spokesman Richard Adamonis and Standard & Poor’s spokesman Dave Guarino. Jill Mathers, a spokeswoman for FTSE Group, didn’t immediately return a phone call or e-mail.
‘Clear, Straightforward’
The Dow was first made up of a dozen stocks, including U.S. Leather and American Sugar. General Electric Co. is the only one of the original 12 that’s still in the index today. The measure, which includes Exxon Mobil Corp. and International Business Machines Corp., is intended to “provide a clear, straightforward view of the stock market and, by extension, the U.S. economy,” according to the company’s Web site.
“It’s the 30 largest industrial stocks and it’s been around forever,” Marshall said. “If someone asks you, ‘What is the market doing?’ You say up or down 100 points and you know they’re referring to the Dow without even thinking about it.”
The Dow added 184.56 points, or 2 percent, to 9,505.96 this week. It closed at the highest level since Nov. 4 yesterday and has rallied 8.2 percent in 2009.
130,000 Indexes
Dow Jones, which runs more than 130,000 indexes, is also part-owner of the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index, a benchmark for European equities. The business may be worth about $700 million, based on its 2007 performance and MSCI’s valuation, the Wall Street Journal said. The process could result in a joint venture or other combination, the newspaper reported. Goldman Sachs also advised Dow Jones on the sale to News Corp. in 2007.
Founded in 1882, Dow Jones began by delivering handwritten bulletins of stock and bond trading news in New York. An afternoon newsletter started the next year and went on to become the Wall Street Journal.
News Corp. and its subsidiaries compete with closely held Bloomberg LP in providing financial news and information.
To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Rabil in New York at srabil@bloomberg.net; Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: August 21, 2009 19:50 EDT
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World Economy Emerging From Worst Recession Since World War II
By Rich Miller and Alison Sider
Aug. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The global economy may be coming out of the worst recession since World War II as record-low interest rates and trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus spur demand.
Sales of existing U.S. homes jumped in July to the highest level since August 2007, and German service industries expanded this month for the first time in almost a year, reports yesterday showed. The Japanese economy grew for the first time in five quarters, according to a report earlier this week.
“There is no question the global economy is healing and emerging from recession,” Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University professor and former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, said in a Bloomberg Television interview yesterday.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other global policy makers cautioned that the recovery is likely to be muted, indicating they would not soon remove all the stimulus injected into the financial system.
“Strains persist in many financial markets across the globe,” Bernanke said in a speech yesterday at the Kansas City Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels.”
The U.S. housing market, which led the way into the recession, is showing signs of righting itself after almost four years of declines. The 7.2 percent rise in sales of existing homes last month was the biggest since the National Association of Realtors began keeping records in 1999.
Housing Stabilizes
U.S. stocks gained for a fourth day, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to the highest level since October. The S&P 500 added 1.9 percent to 1,026.13, giving it a 2.2 percent advance this week. The dollar and Treasuries fell, while oil rose to a 10-month high.
The news yesterday followed a report earlier in the week that single-family housing starts rose in July for the fifth consecutive month to reach the highest level since October.
“Although some of our markets are still stuck in the mud, many are improving,” Robert Toll, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Toll Brothers Inc., told Wall Street analysts on Aug. 12. “It does feel as if the fence sitters are looking for reasons to jump in on the side of buying.” Horsham, Pennsylvania-based Toll is the largest U.S. luxury homebuilder.
Demand has been boosted by government tax credits for first-time buyers and near record-low borrowing costs engineered by the Fed, which has coupled a cut in its benchmark interest rate to near zero with purchases of mortgage-backed securities.
The index of U.S. leading economic indicators, which is supposed to presage activity three to six months ahead, rose in July for a fourth consecutive month, the New York-based Conference Board reported on Aug. 20.
German Sentiment
In Germany, Europe’s largest economy, “business sentiment among service providers strengthened in August and was the most positive since January 2006,” Markit Economics said yesterday, pointing to its purchasing managers’ survey.
“The recession is over,” said Klaus Baader, chief European economist at Societe Generale SA in London, who called the Markit data an “incredible reading.”
German investors are also upbeat. Their confidence jumped to its highest level in more than three years in August, the Mannheim, Germany-based ZEW Center for European Economic Research said on Aug. 18.
Chancellor Angela Merkel, who faces national elections next month, is spending about 85 billion euros ($122 billion) in an effort to rekindle economic growth, including a 2,500-euro payment for consumers who scrap an old car and buy a new one. New-vehicle registrations in Germany rose 23 percent in the first five months of 2009 from the year-earlier period.
Japanese GDP
Japan’s economy is also being boosted by government measures ahead of an election. Prime Minister Taro Aso, whose party is trailing in opinion polls before the Aug. 30 parliamentary elections, has put forward a 25 trillion yen ($265 billion) stimulus plan.
The 3.7 percent rise in Japanese gross domestic product in the second quarter followed an 11.7 percent contraction in the first three months of the year. Exports led the revival of the world’s second-largest economy last quarter, jumping by 6.3 percent.
The IMF may increase its forecast for the global economic rebound next year as signs of growth return, John Lipsky, the fund’s first deputy managing director, said yesterday.
The Washington-based lender last month predicted the world economy will expand 2.5 percent in 2010 after contracting 1.4 percent this year.
Recovery ‘Anticipated’
“We’re on track in broad terms for the kind of recovery we had anticipated,” Lipsky said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Jackson Hole. “But to get that recovery requires continued policy effort -- accommodative monetary policy, stimulative fiscal policy -- to make sure that growth shows up.”
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet sounded a similar note, telling the Jackson Hole conference that it’s too soon to say a recovery can be sustained and that policy makers need to maintain efforts to restore confidence.
“We know that we have an enormous amount of work to do and we should be as active as possible,” Trichet said. The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record 1 percent and is buying covered bonds and flooding banks with money.
To contact the reporters on this story: Rich Miller in Washington rmiller28@bloomberg.netAlison Sider in Washington o asider@bloomberg.net Last Updated: August 22, 2009 00:00 EDT
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I doubt so tat Midas (for tat matter, any other counters) can be in the hands of a single BB or even in the hands of a few BBs as tat is tantamount to "cornering" and violates SGX regulation n any complaints will result in SGX investigation n penalty imposed on them.
risktaker ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 10:18) Posted:
Not really. Midas is in the hands of one BB. Until another BB wanted to counter it. Wait :) for Cheong Signal
dealer0168 ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 09:57) Posted:
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I guess Monday Midas may avert any fall due to Dow outstanding results last night.
As market sentiment is a powerful "dongfeng" that can go against the TA trend. (jus my opinion) |
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Hi star-trader,
I m sorry if u feel offended by my reply.
I fully appreciate your sharing but the bone of contention is using such words as "will", "sure".
We agree to disagree, feel free to disagree but minus such strong words like "will" as we are mere mortals without tat super-natural divine powers.
My point is, the modal "will" means "definitely", "sure to happen", but TA is an art, not a science n as I always said not infalible.
The use of the word "may", "probably", "might" would have been more appropriate for "meaning is going to happen from what i see/feel"
Yes, u may be right many times, but tat des not mean u will be 100% right every time, so be humble, do not let your ego gets the better of u as pride comes b4 a fall.
star-trader ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 10:42) Posted:
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Hi RichTan,
I don't know how to write in nice english, cause I only deals with numbers,charts,analysis all days, but is up to you to define the thing i written here... "Will" meaning is going to happen from what i see/feel but I think everyone here is adult enough to know to handle your own investment and won't be just blindly follow my advise.. For one thing is, I want to minimise the lose of the people here especially retails investors to those big big players or to ride on the gain , that's what i have done from the posts that I have written.
Although I am new here, you can check back my postings if I am merely just "talking" without facts or I have something that can given to you guys..I don't post charts like you do, but I did do chart analysis before posting any remarks here..
Eg for the post I have replied:
MIDAS -> During 0.875, everyone saying that it will be uptrend but I didn't see it that way, it dive off to 0.825..and settled at 0.835.
Ausgroup -> On 13 Aug 2009, I did mentioned to you that it will drop off from 0.61 to 0.585 and true enough it did drop to 0.575. When I dictated the signal on 18 Aug 2009, I did also post back to you on this stock that I mentioned I vested on 0.575 which true enough it "fly-off" after that...
JiutianC -> On 20Aug 2009 at night, At 0.2 , I dictated there is a signal, true enough the next day it ended at 0.22 which was infact yesterday... If it is an uptrend, I would say it is uptrend. I don't just bring down you guys favourite stocks -> MIDAS because it is so.
There are others stocks I posted during my 33 posts here , which not related to you, but I don't think I want to continue to post here.. To Everyone, to confirm whether what I have said is true, you can click on my nick and checked the post/date of the replied to confirm that my analysis is the same with the stock movement..
I have a long thought yesterday if posting here will still be a good thing.. I think , having my own blog and "whoever" is interested to visit, there will be better.. I still tight up with other things but I have just created the blog -> http://star-trader.blogspot.com .
Thus, I won't be posting any more TA points of view here... Thanks for all your attention given to my analysis during my short stay here.
rgds, star-trader
richtan ( Date: 21-Aug-2009 23:05) Posted:
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Hi star-trader,
No offence intended and hope no hard feelings.
My sincere apology, if u feel hurt by my this posting.
Never make such "The Supreme ONE" statements like "will this", "will tat".
Remember, we are just mere mortals, not "The Supreme ONE", only "The Supreme ONE" can make such "sure" statements, we as mere mortals can only make such remarks as "may test ...". "might test" or "will probably test ..."
I would have not made this post had u instead said "may test ...", "might test" or "will probably test ..."
Nothing is for sure till the mkt confirms it, in any case the trend is still up and haven't breached the 95ema for 2 or more days continuous, so I m still unperturbed by all this noises.
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I fully agree with u, as it makes no rational sense.
Thus why, dun believe blindly as he has no super-natural divine powers.
Read wat they write but rationalise whether it make sense
smartrader ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 16:50) Posted:
3800 will require all the finanical institution in DOW index to become zero values. It must be mother of all crisis, ie. end of the world.. dent or dented..haha |
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JMO, as a TA practitioner I m never too eager to secure my profits prematurely as I always remember my 3 golden mantras, one of which is :
(3rd golden mantra): -
"Cut losses short n let profit runs with trailing stops, we need to let profit runs as much as it can to cover all the losses
made n yet make net gains. When we hit the cut-loss, never be emotional, be mechanical, immediately exit n never regret even if
later it goes up bcos if dun cut, wat if it continues to go down, preserving ammunition to fight another day is the key. We can
always re-enter if there is another buy sign candles, even if buying at a higher price."
Tat is only a prediction, no 100% guaranteed, so be mindful but not overly overwhelmed by this fear tat u exit too early, keep salivating, seeing others making money but u exited too early, if u are a TA practitioner, my 1st golden mantras:
(2nd golden mantra): -
"Plan your trade n trade your plan", which means we need to analyse the chart for buying opportunities (TA skills needed, though not infallible) n set out stop-loss point b4 enter a trade and exit based on my 3rd golden mantra.
Integrity ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 16:22) Posted:
| Yes, congrats to those who are still holding to the stock this weekend, hope STI will shoot up this Monday. Nonetheless, do not be greedy and secure in the profits as Economist Harry Dent has predicted that this bear rally will not last, he forcasted the DOW will peak somewhere between 9800 to 10300. Thereafter, he figured that DOW will test a new bottom around 3800. Of course, i hope what he predicted is wrong as going the the Great Depreesion is certainly not something i want to experience in my whole life. You can refer to his video on Youtube. Cheers and invest wisely! |
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Not to worrry for me, I dun fall in love with any stock, the moment, based on my TA interpretation (again, I dun profess tat I m near-GOD like HS Dent, as TA is not infallible), I spotted any reversal sign, I will not hesitate to exit, but of course I m not oblige to announce in this forum everytime I enter or exit any stocks.
TA is based on past data, predicting the future.
My belief is, just read wat HS Dent write, be mindful of wat he wrote but dun worship him like GOD, he is afterall also a mere mortals, so no guaranteee 100% wat he said will always materalise, otherwise he will be a prophet, there are many past instances of well-known guru eg this lady (call her XXX), once prophetic but subsequently fallen from grace and recently trying to regain her shine and draw attention with her calls by riding under the coattails of a reputable brokerage.
cheongwee ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 00:51) Posted:
But if you are still in SAR..base on TA...you will waste your $ here....put them in mermaid..
SAR will not run as fast as in the past, no doubt your TA is a record of SAR past...
the past is dead....long live the future...it is those who predict weel the future..in advance as accurate as HS dent..will prosper..
even those who use TA say something abt " sense that the party is over"
it will most likely be over with them still looking at their TA.. |
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And using TA, we hope to identify where the BBs are and tag along and ride on their coattails.
cheongwee ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 00:34) Posted:
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that is a good question? if only we know...we be rich, but i am all ear on the market,,,and so far i manage to follow thro...though not all,,but so i am doing ok ..esp for this rally,, ..i cant say more..sorry...but that doesnt means i bluff you..
BB ...smart $ move stock..and market
mario1 ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 00:25) Posted:
| How do you know where the smart money will go next |
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I sincerely appreciate your kind warning, it is good, such warning constantly remind us about irrational exuberance.
As a trader, we must always be alert n nimble, like wat u mentioned, birds pecking foods.
The birds are alert will pecking foods but they are not overly overwhelmed by fear tat it had phobia n stopped pecking n missed all the good food. In a nutshell, be nimble n alert will continuing pecking at the mkt.
Like wat u said "at first, i though July...but never expect it last till now", likewise probably in the not so distant future, u may also says "at first, i though July...but never expect it last till now.. subsequently, I thought late summer... but never expect it last beyond late summer".
I m not saying u or HS Dent are wrong, anything is possible, jusy have to stay alert, knows when to exit when we sense the party is going to be over, tats all.
cheongwee ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 00:21) Posted:
no worry...but my apology if i say thing that cannot go well with you ppl...
but really, the time is getting shorter and the risk of staying is much greater than in June.
at first, i though July...but never expect it last till now..
but the longer the rally is, the more sorrowful will the many people here be..also later...
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 Hahaha,,, u come down from Bukit Timah Hill aredi, monitoring mkt while meditating there.
louis_leecs ( Date: 22-Aug-2009 00:02) Posted:
| after a temperately correction.......after so many bad news flood in the market but market manage to ignore and reverse uptend after crash on monday,,,,,,,,,,,,,,finally im strong belive that world finally at bull market again,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,look at dow jones power rally after good news now im can see monday we will see asia market will follow up rally,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheers for the bull stage rally akan datang and finally come,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheers for everyone 'share price rally,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,cheeers |
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Cheongwee,
U are pardoned n forgiven, since I believe u dun read or understand the premise and basis of TA.
TA is not a rocket science, it is an art of interpretation n prediction of mkt direction baesd on past data, thus it is not infallible but the big vol will reveal when BBs enter or exit as retail players can't move huge vol.
Likewise, playing by the "smart money" way is also not infallible unless u are extremely astute, take the case of Nick Leeson and many others smart money goes awry (hope I dun quote wrongly, pardon me if I m wrong).
Lets not "hua shan lun chien", live and lets live, u share based on your "smart money" while TA practitioner share based on thier TA analysis, isn't this better, we have more views like "multi-racial", we get to taste all sorts of different foods, add diversity to thids forum. Let's have "racial" harmony here, dun let this be the "fault-lines" here.
cheongwee ( Date: 21-Aug-2009 23:52) Posted:
But this is a fact in the market,,,maybe for long term value investemnt,..it apply.
but if a counter is good, and BB is not interested it will not soar..
but if they are interested, even a lousy stock will rocket...
BB move stock price in the short term...not TA and FA..
how do you explain for those lousy stock that soar..what FA and TA they got..
they soar on smart money..i.e BB |
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Hi cheongwee,
No offence or any hard feelings.
In order not to start a war and as PM said, share a common space, have some restraint and tolerance of others beliefs.
Though u dun believe in TA, u should also not debase TA as nothing is infallible, tat includes "smart money" as well as TA, by your debasing TA, u are doing injustice to us, TA practitioner.
cheongwee ( Date: 21-Aug-2009 23:10) Posted:
What make a stock soar?
How can penny...those lousy penny and mid cap soar???
what really make them, blues chip, penny and mid cap...or whatsoever soar???
TA and FA???....you say...your turn...
can u do FA and TA on Jade and centillion...can you use TA and FA on sock that loses $ yr after yr..
but you look at their high vol..they are in demand definitely...why?...are they better than those which got solid balance sheet....why???
you say...your turn... |
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