Latest Posts By richtan
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| 25-Aug-2009 11:24 |
Straits Times Index
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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view, I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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| 25-Aug-2009 11:19 |
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DOW & STI
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I dun set TP for any time-frame as I dun have tat divine powers but by the bullish continuation pattern projection, it should head towards about 2990 but of course not in a straight line, with corrections in between like those past pullbacks shown in the chart. Dyodd n BOSAYOR
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| 25-Aug-2009 11:13 |
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Who is owner of this forum?
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The editing feature should have at least a time limit of say 1 to 2 mins for the poster to quickly edit if he/she realise some errors, after tat time limit, the editing feature should be disabled to prevent abuse.
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| 25-Aug-2009 10:39 |
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view, I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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| 25-Aug-2009 10:07 |
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Below is from OCBC Investment Research
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| 25-Aug-2009 10:06 |
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Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) – Retesting the 3000 key resistance More upside in the coming week: SSEC is likely to re-test the 3000 key support-turned-resistance level in the coming week after staging a strong rebound off its 8-month downtrend line. Indicators show signs of a turnaround:With the RSI already showing oversold signals and the MACD showing a possible bottoming, the bearish momentum could be coming to an end soon.
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| 25-Aug-2009 10:04 |
Midas
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Midas
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From OCBC Investment Research:
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| 25-Aug-2009 10:01 |
Midas
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Midas
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From OCBC Investment Research: Midas's firm order book of 1.4 billion yuan (S$296 million), more anticipated contract wins in Sept - Nov 2009... will serve to under-gird valuations"
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| 25-Aug-2009 09:43 |
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Quote from below: "A lot of people didn't get in at the March lows and there's still a lot of buying interest out there," Wilson said. "We could see a number of 3 to 5% corrections, but I think people will use them to get back in."
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| 24-Aug-2009 23:46 |
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Market News that affect STI
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From OCBC Investment Research: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) – Strong breakout to new 2009 high Marching towards the 9652 resistance:With the index staging a strong bullish breakout to set a new 2009 high on Friday, we expect more upside potential; the index could head towards the next key resistance of 9652 this week. Technical indicators showing positive signs: With the daily RSI rebounding off strongly at the 50% level and the MACD on the verge of a bullish crossover, we could see bullish momentum building up in the days ahead. Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSEC) – Retesting the 3000 key resistance More upside in the coming week: SSEC is likely to re-test the 3000 key support-turned-resistance level in the coming week after staging a strong rebound off its 8-month downtrend line. Indicators show signs of a turnaround:With the RSI already showing oversold signals and the MACD showing a possible bottoming, the bearish momentum could be coming to an end soon. Hang Seng Index (HSI) – Back to the 20,000 level At an important juncture: With the index retreating back to the 20,000 level last week, much remains to be seen whether the index will be able to sustain above this level. Technical indicators still bearish:With the RSI falling below the 50% level and the MACD indicator still heading lower, the odds may favor the bears |
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| 24-Aug-2009 23:25 |
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Hahah... as wat benny said in Midas thread: "Fong Fei Kei", ie kena "fly aeroplane"
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| 24-Aug-2009 23:15 |
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Market News that affect STI
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Barrons West Will Languish; Asia Will Lead Christopher Wood, Strategist, CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets By LESLIE P. NORTON | MORE ARTICLES BY AUTHOR AN INTERVIEW WITH CHRISTOPHER WOOD: The author of the popular newsletter Greed & Fear thinks Asia will benefit most from the Western monetary easing. AFTER THE RECENT JUDDER IN THE ASIAN MARKETS, WHO BETTER to ask about the region's prospects than Christopher Wood? The Hong Kong-based strategist for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a unit of Crédit Agricole, pens the widely followed newsletter Greed & Fear. He was early to spot the problems in the U.S. mortgage market and their global financial implications, writing about them back in 2005. Even earlier, he espied the troubles brewing in Thailand, before the 1997 Asian crisis. Midway through last week, the MSCI AC Asia ex-Japan index had risen by 79% in U.S. dollar terms since the October 27 bottom, while the Standard & Poor's 500 is up just 17% over the same period. Wood acknowledges a modest correction may be in order, but believes prospects are good for a long-term bull market in Asia. To learn why, keep reading. Barron's: You sure got this crisis right. Where are we now? Wood: This financial crisis in the Western world will lead to a long period of anemic growth. The data that is making people more optimistic on the U.S. right now is tending to be production-oriented data like the ISM [a survey of manufacturers] or car sales. But there is very little sign to me that U.S. consumer demand is recovering or that real releveraging is taking place. In fact, all the evidence both in the U.S. and Euroland is that the consumer is going into long-term retrenchment. Even when the banks in America and Europe become healthier in coming quarters and years, I believe demand for credit will be much less than it was in the last five, ten years. So, we are going into a long-term period of deleveraging. We'll continue to see deflation backdrops in the Western world. The best case is a long period of subpar, anemic growth. What does this mean for equities? My formal target has been a 1050 on the S&P 500 [versus the current level around 1,000]. But that is just a technical view. Either in the fourth quarter of this year or definitely next year, the S&P is going to have a proper correction, by which I mean declines below the technical level of 875. There is no evidence that the U.S. or British consumer is really recovering. Actually, America and Europe remain at risk of Japanese-style liquidity traps despite all this fiscal monetary policy activism you have seen in the West. From a global equity investor's standpoint, Asia and the emerging markets stand out as a place to invest. I haven't been surprised that Asia and emerging markets have outperformed since the autumn lows. It is a very positive sign that Asia and emerging markets did not make new lows when the S&P did in March. It's also positive that trading volumes have increased for most of the period since the start of the year in the Asian stock markets' recovery, whereas trading volumes were broadly static on the S&P. Those rising volumes I attribute to growing domestic investor participation within Asia. The biggest beneficiaries of Western monetary easing aren't going to be indebted Western consumers. The biggest beneficiary of monetary easing in the West is going to be Asia...and emerging-market asset prices. That's primarily equities and real estate, because the money generated by all this excess liquidity from dramatic monetary easing in the past year or more, is going to flow to the best story. Which one? When I say you want to be overweight Asia and emerging markets, I'm talking predominantly about investing in domestic themes in [Asia and emerging] markets, such as financial services, real estate, domestic infrastructure. If I was advising a big global or domestic U.S. investor that didn't have emerging-market expertise that just wanted to concentrate on three big markets, I would advise them to invest in China, India and Brazil, because they are all good stories. Different, though. Well, China is a weird mix of command economy and private-sector capitalism. If you invest in the blue chips, you are predominantly investing in state-owned enterprises, be they China Mobile [ticker: CHL], Industrial & Commercial Bank of China [1398.Hong Kong], China Life Insurance [LFC], PetroChina [PTR]. The advantage is that these are dominant companies without competitive threat. You're not going to have huge corporate-governance abuse, because [people who do that in China] are at risk of being executed. The negative is, they are not pure capitalist enterprises, and you have always got the regulatory risk if they decide to change the rules of the game. That's the China story. The China index is predominantly domestic demand. India is very different. What's good about China tends to be bad about India. And what's bad about India tends to be good about China. India is much more the U.S. model of the stock market. You have a huge number of companies, a wide diversity of sectors. In India, the question of who wins and who loses in any sector is much more important than in China. You have more than 100 years of stock-market history, and a more Western-style legal system. In other words, a real element of due process, which is not the case in any other emerging market. India is great, India is my favorite emerging-market equity story. If I was only going to invest in one, I would invest in India because of the wide diversity of companies you could invest in. But it will always have a premium, good price/earnings rating. The other virtue about India is that export is unimportant in terms of gross domestic product. China is more about exports than India, but it's not all about exports, either. That's why both China and India this year have confounded most economists' forecasts, growing much more than most people were predicting at the start of the year despite the fact that the U.S. is barely growing. Then there's Brazil, which I don't follow closely, because CLSA is an Asia specialist. The big story there remains the ability for real interest rates to really collapse, because they finally cracked inflation. Inflation is very low. They can bring rates to single-digits, and that will encourage the development of a middle class. Obviously, it has the resources as well. BRICs without Russia? Why not Russia? Russia is okay, but less diversified than Brazil and more a pure oil play. The decoupling story, once debunked, is being revived. I wouldn't put it that strongly. I would look at it like this: At the beginning of 2008, the investment community had basically largely embraced the notion of decoupling. By the end of '08, the investment consensus had embraced the precisely opposite notion that China and Asian emerging markets would prove to be export train wrecks correlated with the U.S. consumer. The reality is something in the middle, what I call macroeconomic, incremental decoupling -- a boring, middle-of-the-road view. China, India growth has slowed, but not to the extent of some of the more bearish forecasts. Many were correctly bearish on the U.S. and Euroland...[while] China will grow 8% to 9% this year. It has the help of a big command economy stimulus. The natural excuse for a breather is renewed tightening concerns in China, but I don't think China will be slamming on the brakes. India will probably grow more than 6%. In India, there's no command-economy stimulus, because the government couldn't organize one. But it's not a train wreck correlated with the U.S. consumer. Today, the trend in bank-lending in India remains healthy. Stock-market decoupling is a different story. As of today, we have zero evidence of the stock-market decoupling. We've had dramatic outperformance by Asia and emerging markets since the October low. When stock markets correct, Asian and emerging markets normally underperform on the downside as much as they outperformed on the upside. We can't stress-test if Asia and emerging-market stock markets have started to decouple until the next time the S&P has a proper correction -- let's say below 875. The key issue for people involved in Asian emerging markets is how resilient they prove to be. Now, if they only go down as much as the S&P in the context of the dramatic outperformance we've seen to date, that would be incredibly positive. But they've demonstrated this year their macroeconomic resilience. You've talked about an asset bubble in Asia. How far into it are we? Valuations have expanded quite dramatically. No way I would call it an asset bubble yet. All we've had is outperformance. And Asian valuations collapsed late last year way beyond where common sense suggested they should stop, simply because hedge funds and funds-of-funds were liquidating the one investment they still had made some money on, and didn't face lockouts in Asian and emerging-market equities. If you were a fund-of-funds with a lot of hedge funds owning garbage credit, you just redeemed what you could sell. Asian valuations are not cheap today. But in a real bubble, Asia ends up trading two or three times the P/E of the S&P. In the very short term, frankly, Asia has outperformed so much that there's a risk of the S&P outperforming Asia. On a three-month basis, if you had not invested anything in Asia up to now and had $100 to invest, I'd only invest a third of the amount today, and the rest after a correction. What are some of the stresses in Asia? The big stresses remain in the West, where monetary policy remains very easy for a long time. If Western policy remains very loose, that could trigger a speculative bubble in Asia. You know, that doesn't have to happen. The Asian policy makers can counter that by tightening aggressively. But there is a remarkable lack of stress in Asia and emerging markets, because there's a remarkable lack of consumer debt, corporate debt, and government debt. There are high savings rates. They are just in much better condition than the developed world. What themes do you like and dislike? I like financial services, real estate and domestic infrastructure -- the three broad domestic sectors linked to a domestic demand, asset-reflation theme. If you have got the ability to buy smaller stocks, then you can buy consumer stocks. [Wood's thematic model portfolio is shown on the nearby table.] Search-engine stocks are also domestic demand proxies. I would be less aggressive investing in exporters, but there's nothing I aggressively dislike in Asia, I'd say. (Embedded image moved to file: pic05436.gif) When stock markets correct, Asian and emerging markets normally underperform on the downside as much as they outperformed on the upside. We can't stress-test if Asia and emerging-market stock markets have started to decouple until the next time the S&P has a proper correction -- let's say below 875. The key issue for people involved in Asian emerging markets is how resilient they prove to be. Now, if they only go down as much as the S&P in the context of the dramatic outperformance we've seen to date, that would be incredibly positive. But they've demonstrated this year their macroeconomic resilience. You've talked about an asset bubble in Asia. How far into it are we? Valuations have expanded quite dramatically. No way I would call it an asset bubble yet. All we've had is outperformance. And Asian valuations collapsed late last year way beyond where common sense suggested they should stop, simply because hedge funds and funds-of-funds were liquidating the one investment they still had made some money on, and didn't face lockouts in Asian and emerging-market equities. If you were a fund-of-funds with a lot of hedge funds owning garbage credit, you just redeemed what you could sell. Asian valuations are not cheap today. But in a real bubble, Asia ends up trading two or three times the P/E of the S&P. In the very short term, frankly, Asia has outperformed so much that there's a risk of the S&P outperforming Asia. On a three-month basis, if you had not invested anything in Asia up to now and had $100 to invest, I'd only invest a third of the amount today, and the rest after a correction. What are some of the stresses in Asia? The big stresses remain in the West, where monetary policy remains very easy for a long time. If Western policy remains very loose, that could trigger a speculative bubble in Asia. You know, that doesn't have to happen. The Asian policy makers can counter that by tightening aggressively. But there is a remarkable lack of stress in Asia and emerging markets, because there's a remarkable lack of consumer debt, corporate debt, and government debt. There are high savings rates. They are just in much better condition than the developed world. What themes do you like and dislike? I like financial services, real estate and domestic infrastructure -- the three broad domestic sectors linked to a domestic demand, asset-reflation theme. If you have got the ability to buy smaller stocks, then you can buy consumer stocks. [Wood's thematic model portfolio is shown on the nearby table.] Search-engine stocks are also domestic demand proxies. I would be less aggressive investing in exporters, but there's nothing I aggressively dislike in Asia, I'd say. I also think Asian currencies are long-term appreciation stories, another reason to own the equities. Asian currencies are going to be relatively safe havens compared with Western currencies, because they are not going to blow up their solvent balance sheets bailing out banks. And basically, on a five-year view, I'm expecting investors to lose confidence in Western paper currencies. Tell us about Taiwan. This is a specific story that has nothing to do with the general Asian theme, based on political developments. Sooner or later, you will see a formal end of hostilities or tensions between China and Taiwan, which will lead to a dramatic improvement in economic links. That will lead to a huge rerating in equity prices in Taiwan, and probably also an appreciation of the [New Taiwan] dollar. Over the past year you've already seen pretty significant developments, most importantly a growing number of direct flights. On a five year view, I'd expect more integration: Chinese banks would be able to function in Taiwan and vice versa, growing investments by big Chinese companies in Taiwan, and Taiwan companies integrating their China operations into reported results. This is a very good story and people should buy Taiwan on pullbacks if they don't already own it, and take a long-term bullish view of the NT$. How about Japan, which votes in a parliamentary election on August 30? It isn't an emerging market. But if the DPJ [Democratic Party of Japan] does win the election as expected, that can only be a potential positive. It creates the hope of change and [of] a more domestic-demand-driven policy. If the equity-market rally keeps going, Japan is overdue some outperformance, particularly the exporters, which are actually doing some genuine cost-cutting. But it has all kinds of structural issues that the rest of Asia doesn't have. The most interesting domestic sector in Japan is the real-estate investment trusts, like Japan Prime Realty [8955.Japan] and the Japan Retail Fund [8953.Japan]. The REITs have distressed valuations and very high yields -- 6% to 9% -- relative to very low Japanese interest rates. And the government is now supporting the sector. Thank you. |
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| 24-Aug-2009 23:02 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR. 
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:59 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR.
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:47 |
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Nah... the bears and shortists are peeing in their pants
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:30 |
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:29 |
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S-chips!
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Yes, I agree with u, the wide disparity in the PER, S-chips will play catch-up while SSE may consolidate or undergo some mild corrrections.
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:11 |
AusGroup
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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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See my other chart posting further below on the long-term cup and handle formation. | |||||||||||
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:07 |
AusGroup
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AUSGROUP: 1H09 revenue up 28.8% to reach A$260.5 m
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Below is my chart analysis for sharing and exchange pointers. My TA chart is posted to share n exchange pointers with those TA practitioner whom believes in TA. If u are a TA detractor, plse just ignore n refrain from peeping at my chart posting n start making unconstructive comments and plse do not be so childish or lunatic as to abuse the rating system by rating it as "bad post", accumulating for yourself and your next generation, "bad" karma for your "bad" deeds. If u think it is a bad post, then be constructive and kindly post your TA for sharing. This is only my view n I may be right or wrong, so dyodd and SOBAYOR. 
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| 24-Aug-2009 22:01 |
Genting Sing
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GenSp starts to move up again
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Hi dealer0168, Bearish divergence means though the prices formed 2 or more higher peaks but the other indicators show otherwise, ie more or less a warning sign tat corrections coming soon, when ??, nobody knows.
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