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妙 !
GorgeousOng ( Date: 30-Nov-2013 10:03) Posted:
夫 妻 是 缘 孩 子 是 债
无 缘 不 聚 无 债 不 来
夫 妻 是 缘 ， 不 管 是 善 缘
还 是 恶 缘 ， 无 缘 不 聚 。
孩 子 是 债 ， 不 管 是 讨 债
还 是 还 债 ， 无 债 不 来 。
所 以 ， 善 缘 的 夫 妻 能 和 和 睦 睦 过 一 辈 子 ，
恶 缘 的 夫 妻 吵 吵 闹 闹 一 辈 子 妻 离 子 散 。
讨 债 的 孩 子 一 辈 子 不 成 器 让 父 母 操 心 ，
还 债 的 孩 子 始 终 让 父 母 省 心 并 知 恩 图 报 。
人 世 间 如 此 多 的 悲 欢 离 合 恩 恩 怨 怨 ，
说 白 了 都 是 因 缘 和 合 的 结 果 ，
如 是 因 如 是 果 ， 无 论 何 种 因 何 种 果 ， 都 是 缘 ??
所 以 人 与 人 之 间 都 有 缘 份 。
你 走 到 马 路 上 ， 一 个 陌 生 的 人
对 你 点 头 笑 一 笑 ， 也 是 从 前 的 缘 份 。
看 到 陌 生 人 素 不 相 识 ，
一 看 到 就 不 顺 眼 ， 也 是 过 去 的 缘 份 。
所 以 把 这 个 事 实 真 相 搞 清 楚 ，
我 们 真 是 起 心 动 念 不 能 不 谨 慎 ，
千 万 不 要 跟 一 切 众 生 结 冤 仇 ，
不 要 跟 一 切 众 生 有 债 务 的 关 系 。
对 于 未 结 婚 的 慎 重 对 待 婚 姻 ，
已 结 婚 的 珍 爱 已 有 的 婚 姻 ；
做 儿 女 的 孝 顺 父 母 ，
做 父 母 的 也 尊 重 儿 女 。
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CapitaLand and CapitaMalls Asia - Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen visit notes
■ We visited CAPL's projects in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen?a total of 8 projects?with the trip ending with a presentation by key business heads. We saw a good mix of completed and under-development sites, including the upcoming RC Changning and RC Shenzhen, as well as the mixed developments at Datansha Island (CAPL's first urban renewal project) and Hanzhong Lu.
We also had the opportunity to visit CMA's recently acquired Guangzhou site and saw the neighbouring malls within the vicinity to get a better understanding of the location. ■ Key highlights from the trip (1) China property sales have improved YoY with ASPs up 10-20% this year. This partly offsets the slight 5-10% uptick in construction cost due to labour, preserving margins. Meanwhile, only 100 units are completed and unsold (of CAPL's > 65,000 unit-pipeline). The completion of 1,800 units in 4Q13 is on schedule, which means profit recognition will be backloaded
(2) Raffles City projects should see strata sales of certain office blocks (Shenzhen and Changning) to allow some returns to stakeholders in the near term, but management is mindful to retain control of the asset to preserve RC branding
(3) Ascott should benefit from operating leverage as more of its pipeline assets become operational (56% of total China units operational now)
(4) Managements will be focusing on building on scalability (benefit from economies of scale) and target more integrated projects (where they have an advantage). ■ Attractive risk rewardCMA and CAPL are our preferred developer picks due to their increasing earnings momentum led by higher contribution from new openings/completions (malls for CMA also residential completions for CAPL), layered on top of their recurring income streams from management fees and rental income.
CMA trades at 1.13x P/B or 29.5% discount to S$2.86 RNAV CAPL trades at 0.8x P/B or 43.5% discount to S$5.32 RNAV. (Read Report)
Maintain OUTPERFORM: CMA and CAPL are our preferred developer picks
Credit Suisse
CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.58)
We continue to like CMA as we expect its earnings momentum to improve in the coming quarters, driven by increased profit contribution from new openings and rent reversions at existing malls (underpinned by healthy tenant sales growth) in its China and Singapore markets, which collectively make up 85% of total assets. The stock trades at 1.13x P/B, or at a 29.5% discount to
CapitaLand (CATL.SI, OUTPERFORM, TP S$4.53)
We expect CAPL's earnings momentum to improve in the coming quarters (driven by CMA, better profit recognition from Singapore and China). At 0.80x P/B, the stock trades at a 43.5% discount to RNAV of S$5.32 (target price of S$4.53 based on a 15% discount to RNAV). |
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CapitaLand and CapitaMalls Asia - Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen visit notes
■ We visited CAPL's projects in Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen?a total of 8 projects?with the trip ending with a presentation by key business heads. We saw a good mix of completed and under-development sites, including the upcoming RC Changning and RC Shenzhen, as well as the mixed developments at Datansha Island (CAPL's first urban renewal project) and Hanzhong Lu.
We also had the opportunity to visit CMA's recently acquired Guangzhou site and saw the neighbouring malls within the vicinity to get a better understanding of the location. ■ Key highlights from the trip (1) China property sales have improved YoY with ASPs up 10-20% this year. This partly offsets the slight 5-10% uptick in construction cost due to labour, preserving margins. Meanwhile, only 100 units are completed and unsold (of CAPL's > 65,000 unit-pipeline). The completion of 1,800 units in 4Q13 is on schedule, which means profit recognition will be backloaded
(2) Raffles City projects should see strata sales of certain office blocks (Shenzhen and Changning) to allow some returns to stakeholders in the near term, but management is mindful to retain control of the asset to preserve RC branding
(3) Ascott should benefit from operating leverage as more of its pipeline assets become operational (56% of total China units operational now)
(4) Managements will be focusing on building on scalability (benefit from economies of scale) and target more integrated projects (where they have an advantage). ■ Attractive risk rewardCMA and CAPL are our preferred developer picks due to their increasing earnings momentum led by higher contribution from new openings/completions (malls for CMA also residential completions for CAPL), layered on top of their recurring income streams from management fees and rental income.
CMA trades at 1.13x P/B or 29.5% discount to S$2.86 RNAV CAPL trades at 0.8x P/B or 43.5% discount to S$5.32 RNAV. (Read Report)
Maintain OUTPERFORM: CMA and CAPL are our preferred developer picks
Credit Suisse
CapitaMalls Asia (CMAL.SI, OUTPERFORM, TP S$2.58)
We continue to like CMA as we expect its earnings momentum to improve in the coming quarters, driven by increased profit contribution from new openings and rent reversions at existing malls (underpinned by healthy tenant sales growth) in its China and Singapore markets, which collectively make up 85% of total assets. The stock trades at 1.13x P/B, or at a 29.5% discount to
CapitaLand (CATL.SI, OUTPERFORM, TP S$4.53)
We expect CAPL's earnings momentum to improve in the coming quarters (driven by CMA, better profit recognition from Singapore and China). At 0.80x P/B, the stock trades at a 43.5% discount to RNAV of S$5.32 (target price of S$4.53 based on a 15% discount to RNAV).
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Three penny stocks suffer further pounding
No end to woes as Asiasons, Blumont, LionGold are bumped off MSCI index
Published on Nov 30, 2013, ST
By Goh Eng Yeow Senior Correspondent
ASIASONS Capital, LionGold Corp and Blumont Capital suffered further selling this week as they were bumped off an international stock index widely tracked by fund managers.
All three counters had been components of the MSCI Global Small Cap Index.
But on Nov 7, the index provider said it would be dropping the trio from the prestigious market benchmark.
The changes took effect after the market closed on Tuesday.
It was the latest humiliation in their fall from grace after suffering a staggering $8 billion in losses in their combined market value in just two days of sell-down last month.
For the first nine months of this year, the three counters had been the toast of traders, as their share prices shot up, drawing fund managers and retail investors to load up on their shares.
Blumont had gained as much as 11 times in value, while LionGold rose about 57 per cent and Asiasons was up by 2.5 times during the period.
But all these gains evaporated during last month's still unexplained massive sell-off.
During the week just gone, they appeared to move in lock- step. The three counters managed to eke out small gains on Monday only to suffer a sell-off on Tuesday as investors dumped their shares to adjust for the changes to be made to the MSCI index at the end of that day.
They then struggled to recover part of their losses as the week progressed. Yesterday, LionGold ended the day 0.55 per cent lower at 18.1 cents, while Asiasons rose 1.47 per cent to 13.8 cents, and Blumont was up 1.83 per cent at 11.1 cents.
For long-suffering investors of the three counters, waiting for a lucky break to make an exit has turned out to be a hopeless task.
The latest bad news to hit the three counters is legal action taken by US-based Interactive Brokers against parties to claim the losses it had sustained, following the collapse of the trio.
These are Blumont chairman Neo Kim Hock, Ipco International boss Quah Su Ling, LionGold director of business and corporate development Peter Chen Hing Woon, JK Yiming director Tan Boon Kiat and two other people - Mr Lee Chai Huat and Mr Kuan Ah Ming.
Separately, Ms Quah and Blumont director James Hong had taken legal action against Goldman Sachs for the losses they sustained when the global bank force-sold the shares they pledged with it as loan collateral.
Interactive Brokers was earlier reported to have lost about US$68 million (S$85 million) owing to clients' exposure to the three counters. It had purportedly taken out a court order to freeze the assets of the parties named in its legal action.
That, in turn, raises another question: Mr Neo was reported to be selling 95 million Blumont shares to Mr Alexander Molyneux as part of a broader deal to allow the former banker to buy a 5.2 per cent stake in the mining play and become its chairman.
Now that Mr Neo's assets have been frozen, traders are wondering if Mr Molyneux will still be able to consummate the deal when the one-month extension expires next Friday.
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U.S. Stocks Fall, Erasing Earlier Gain on Retailer Rally
U.S. stocks fell as investors sold shares in the final half hour of a shortened trading session, erasing earlier gains fueled by a rally in online retailers amid Black Friday sales.
Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (ADM) fell 3 percent after Australia blocked a A$2.2 billion ($2 billion) takeover of GrainCorp Ltd. EBay Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. gained at least 1.8 percent. Best Buy Co. and Coach Inc. advanced more than 1.4 percent as retailers opened their doors to holiday shoppers. Apple Inc. rose 1.9 percent after a report showed the company sold three of every four smartphones in Japan last month. Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Terry Lundgren, chief executive officer of Macy's Inc., talks about the decision to open stores on Thanksgiving Day, business outlook and the impact of technology on consumers. Lundgren speaks with Deirdre Bolton on Bloomberg Television's " In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)
The S& P 500 fell 0.1 percent to 1,805.81, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.4 percent. The gauge advanced 0.1 percent for the week, extending its winning streak to eight weeks, the longest since 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 10.92 points, or 0.1 percent, to 16,086.41 today. Trading in S& P 500 stocks was 8.9 percent below the 30-day average. U.S. markets were closed yesterday for the Thanksgiving holiday and trading ended at 1 p.m. today.
?It?s very light trading,? John Manley, who helps oversee $233.6 billion as chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Funds Management in New York, said in a phone interview. The Friday after Thanksgiving is ?going to be subject to light volume.?
The S& P 500 rose 2.8 percent for the month. The benchmark gauge has climbed 27 percent in 2013, poised for its best year since 1998, and the Dow has gained 23 percent after the Federal Reserve refrained from tapering its third round of economic stimulus. Fed Minutes
Minutes of the last Fed meeting released on Nov. 20 showed that officials are considering scaling back their $85 billion in monthly bond purchases ?in coming months? if the economy improves as anticipated. Four out of five investors expect the Fed to delay a decision to begin reducing the stimulus until March 2014 or later, according to a Bloomberg Global Poll on Nov. 19.
Central bank bond purchases have helped push the S& P 500 up 167 percent from a bear-market low in 2009. Fed policy makers have been scrutinizing data to determine whether the economy is strong enough to withstand a reduction in stimulus.
Investors are awaiting reports on manufacturing and home sales next week, and the November release of non-farm payrolls on Dec. 6. Janet Yellen, who will replace Ben S. Bernanke as chairman of the Fed, has said she will ensure monetary stimulus isn?t removed too soon to support economic recovery in the U.S. ?Sharp Eye?
?There?s going to be a very sharp eye on the incoming economic data, with the economy really being important to the next steps for the Fed and the markets,? Gary Flam, managing director and portfolio manager at Los Angeles-based Bel Air Investment Advisors LLC, said by phone. Bel Air manages $7 billion in assets.
A report today showed euro-area unemployment unexpectedly declined in October, the latest indication that the bloc?s recovery is gaining traction. Separate data yesterday showed economic confidence in the euro region improved more than economists forecast to a 27-month high in November.
The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) rose 5.5 percent today to 13.7. The gauge of S& P 500 options known as the VIX declined 0.4 percent for November.
Eight of 10 main industry groups in the S& P 500 slid today, with telephone stocks falling the most. Airlines lost 1.2 percent as a group. Southwest Airlines Co. fell 1.9 percent to $18.59 and US Airways Group Inc. sunk 2.1 percent to $23.48. GrainCorp Deal
ADM dropped 3 percent to $40.25. Australia?s rejection of the agricultural commodities producer?s takeover prompted a record 22 percent drop in GrainCorp, the biggest crop handler on Australia?s east coast, and a slide in the local currency.
?This proposal has attracted a high level of concern from stakeholders and the broader community,? Treasurer Joe Hockey said today, ruling U.S.-based ADM?s bid of A$12.20 a share isn?t in the national interest. ?Now is not the right time for a 100 percent foreign acquisition of this key Australian business.?
Technology companies gained 0.5 percent, the most among S& P 500 groups. EBay rose 2.5 percent to $50.52 and Amazon.com jumped 1.8 percent to $393.62. Online sales are projected to climb as much as 15 percent to $82 billion during the holidays, more than three times faster than the total gain of 3.9 percent to $602.1 billion, according to the National Retail Federation.
Apple rose 1.9 percent to $556.07. The company accounted for 76 percent of smartphone sales in Japan last month after the country?s largest carrier, NTT Docomo Inc., began offering the iPhone, market researcher Kantar Worldpanel ComTech said yesterday. Retailers Rise
Retailers climbed 0.3 percent, the second-biggest gain among 24 groups in the S& P 500. Best Buy rose 2.4 percent to $40.55 and Coach jumped 1.4 percent to $57.90. Gap Inc. and Tiffany & Co. advanced, while Macy?s Inc. and Kohl?s Corp. fell after erasing earlier gains.
Millions of Americans will hit the malls today for Black Friday. The cost of hedging against losses in U.S. retailers has slipped to the lowest level in more than three years as investors speculate that an improving labor market and falling gas prices will stimulate holiday sales.
U.S. retail sales climbed at a faster-than-expected pace in October, a measure of consumer sentiment beat estimates this month and jobless claims fell to their lowest since September last week, signaling a strengthening U.S. economy. Gasoline prices are near their lowest since February 2011, while house prices are climbing at the fastest rate since 2006. Early Opening
Sales are projected to advance 2.4 percent this holiday, the smallest increase since 2009, the year the recession ended, according to researcher ShopperTrak. Faced with six fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas than last year, retailers are pouring on the discounts to lure customers. Many chains opened earlier than ever this year to win market share.
?The general mood is that we?re going to have growth this year in terms of holiday season shopping, though probably less than before the crisis,? Aaron Izenstark, co-founder and chief investment officer of Iron Financial LLC?s Iron Strategic Income Fund in Northbrook, Illinois, said by phone. ?There is an expectation in the market that it has started out on a positive note, so I do think that is definitely driving thoughts today in the marketplace.?
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World MarketsNorth and South American markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The Bovespa gained 1.23% and the IPC rose 0.80%. The S& P 500 lost 0.08%. North and South American Indexes |
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Global Logistic Properties (GLP SP, MC0)
Technical BUY with +7.7% potential return, By UOBKH
Last done : S$2.97
Resistance : S$3.20
Support : S$2.86
BUY with a target price of S$3.20 with stops
placed below S$2.86. On 27 Nov 13, we
highlighted that the stock could be supported
near its 150-day EMA. Currently there could be
further upside should prices continue to trade
above its 50-day EMA. Watch to see whether
prices could close above S$3.00 as its
Stochastics indicator has formed a bullish
crossover and could move away from its
oversold region.
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WanSiTong ( Date: 29-Nov-2013 15:45) Posted:
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Choh kan liao.....Choh kan liao......... |
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Choh kan liao.....Choh kan liao.........
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What's Happened to Blumont, Asiasons and LionGold ?............volume so thin today.........All on leave..... Bo Cho kan ah......Lol
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CapitaLand - Building an edge in China
 Our recent ground checks on CapLand?s China projects suggest that it is gradually establishing an edge in large-scale mixed developments. Asset build is on track and retail footfalls are encouraging. Its attitude of improving returns at the project level is also a positive, in our view.
We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% but keep our target price, based on a 20% discount to RNAV. CapLand remains an Outperform, with catalysts from more capital recycling and yield uplifts.
What Happened Last week, we toured CapLand?s projects in Shanghai and parts of south China (Guangzhou and Shenzhen), and also interacted with senior management and ground staff.
What We Think We think CapLand is gradually carving out a competitive advantage over the local developers in large-scale commercial and mixed developments. Though not all will bear fruit in the near term, we believe the stage is set for more asset recycling once many of its Raffles City (RC) mixed projects are completed in 2015-17.
Meanwhile, we see improvements at the operational and project levels. In Shanghai, retail mall footfall remains robust, with a distinct improvement in traffic at Hongkou Plaza (CMA) since our last visit in 2012. This asset will enter its first renewal cycle in 2014 and management is confident of getting 15-20% rental reversions, like the group?s other malls. We think this is achievable.
 | | CEO Mr Lim Ming Yan |
The feel is more mixed on China?s residential segment (12% of its GAV). The high-end segment remains weak due to the home purchase restrictions (HPR) but mid-end projects continue to sell well. Dolce Vita, a mid-range product in Guangzhou sold over 86% of its launched units at Rmb15k-20k psm. CapLand?s ground staff told us that property remains the most sought-after investment asset class in China.
Interestingly, we noticed more of CapLand?s commercial projects being carved out for strata sales, a segment not affected by HPR.
CEO Mr Lim Ming Yan?s style of management is to go bottom-up and improve yields and IRR at the project level. He expects development sales to be the ROE kicker, while maintaining a target 34% of its assets for development growth. Overall, we think CapLand is progressing well in achieving its ROE target of 8-12%.
Technical Analysis
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What You Should Do CapLand remains one of our key picks in the sector at 0.8x P/BV. (Read Report)
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it all depends on whether BBs are in long or short position..............lol........the answer is as good as no answer...........
WanSiTong ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 12:45) Posted:
Tomorrow window dressing day....... guess will go up or down..............
myfcoach ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 09:40) Posted:
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Tomorrow window dressing day....... guess will go up or down..............
myfcoach ( Date: 28-Nov-2013 09:40) Posted:
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Singapore
* Centurion (CENT SP): Requests trading halt
* Datapulse (DT SP): 1Q profit S$985k vs S$4m yr earlier
* GuocoLand (GUOL SP): 1st distribution on S$200m notes made
yday
* Hong Fok (HFC SP): Chairman to resign Jan. 31
* Interra (ITRR SP): Starts drilling development well TMT-58
TMT-57 producing 650 barrels of oil/day
* Mirach (MENR SP): Says Pertamina approves 3 wells, inc.
KM-602 Says spudded KM-602 well in Kampung Minyak field
* PNE Industries (PNE SP): FY profit S$3.76m vs S$5.6m yr ago
* SembCorp Industries (SCI SP): Sembcorp Financial unit issues
S$200m ($160m) of fixed-rate notes due 2024
* Wilmar (WIL SP): Tanker Theresa Bitung catches fire in South
China Sea: Xinhua
* Highest short sales as a percentage of turnover yday (mkt
cap > S$500m): SMRT Corp (MRT SP) (48%), Sound Global (SGL
SP) (47%), City Developments (CIT SP) (37%)
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Singapore to Allow Mainland Chinese Listings: WSJ
Mainland Chinese companies registered in China will now able to list in Singapore, a move that will allow the Southeast Asian exchange to compete with Hong Kong to attract China's corporate giants.
Singapore Exchange said on Monday that it would create a framework in cooperation with China Securities Regulatory Commission to allow the new listings. Chinese companies have been allowed to list in Singapore before, but they had to be incorporated outside mainland China.
Hong Kong has listings of both Chinese registered " H-shares," the equivalent of what this new agreement between Singapore and China would allow, and " red chips," or Chinese companies incorporated outside China in places such as the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands. Some of Hong Kong's largest companies, such as state-owned oil giant China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, are H-shares.
" The direct listings framework will enable companies from China to more efficiently tap the capital markets in Singapore and reach out to our global investor base, offering the latter more choices and access to the growing Chinese economy," said Singapore Exchange Chief Executive Magnus Bocker.
As is the case of getting listed in Hong Kong, Chinese firms would have to obtain approval from the CSRC before seeking a listing on SGX, pushing them through multiple regulatory hurdles. They must also comply with Chinese law and meet Singaporean regulatory standards, including adopting international accounting standards, according to SGX.
The framework, active from Nov. 25, won't be an overnight revolution for SGX, which calls itself Asia's gateway but struggles to compete with its larger counterpart in Hong Kong.
" In terms of SGX earnings as a whole it's unlikely to be relevant any time soon," said Stephen Andrews, head of Asian financial services at UBS. " But sometimes you have to fire 50 bullets and two or three of them hit and become big." He added that Chinese companies would likely need additional incentive to choose Singapore over Hong Kong, which was more commonly seen as their " natural home."
Singaporean and Chinese regulators will likely want to reassure investors that the move won't lead to another wave of accounting scandals, which brought down several Chinese companies in recent years.
In one such case from 2009, China-based education company Oriental Century Ltd. admitted inflating sales and cash-balance figures. Its stock plummeted and its CEO lost his job--one of several as the so-called " S-chip" scandals spread.
In a separate scenario in 2010 involving Singapore-listed China Milk Products, investors found themselves in a regulatory black hole when the company ran into trouble. The company's management was based in China but it was legally headquartered in the Cayman Islands, prompting disagreements between regulators over who had jurisdiction over what.
Despite these scandals, SGX counts 140 companies still listed in Singapore but deriving most of their revenue from China. Among the largest are real-estate developers Yuexiu Property Co. and Yanlord Land Group Ltd.
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Singapore Developers - DETERIORATING from Stable
2014: Shift towards home oversupply begins
We are turning more cautious on the Singapore residential market given oversupply risk. We expect the era of supply shortage to end by 2015, due to a combination of rising completed supply and easing pent-up demand. Unsold inventory has risen since 3Q13 as developers race to launch products ahead of home price weakness.This also reflects declines in demand due to the effects of the seven cooling measures. Looking into 2014/15, demand growth could stay under pressure given potential interest rate increases and slower economic growth, as well as tighter immigration policies.
Another challenge faced by developers is margin squeeze from higher land costs
The competition for land is intense, driven by restocking needs, strategic bidding practices (eg, to protect existing sites), and new players entering the land market. Land costs for developers in the sector accounted for 57% of development cost in 2013, up from 46% in 2008. We estimate net margins could fall from c24% in 20112 to c10% in 2013/14, assuming launch prices stay flat. One other implication of the overheated land market is local developers being forced out of the market as they find it difficult to restock land.
Their success rate at winning sites has fallen from 23% in 2010 to 11% in 2013. This could slow developers? earnings momentum.
Stock implications We expect volumes to fall 28% in 2013 and another 7% by 2015, and home prices to fall 15% (we previously forecast a fall of 10%). Our trend analysis shows volumes typically track ahead of home prices. To reflect our new home price assumptions, we cut our estimates for 2013-15 EPS by 6- 10% and RNAV by 2-6%, and cut out TPs by 9% on average. Stock prices tend to lead home prices. We believe home prices have peaked in 2013 and will fall. We downgrade City Dev to REDUCE (from Hold), given its proxy status and large exposure to the Singapore residential market. We downgrade Keppel Land to HOLD (from Buy) given its recent outperformance. We maintain CapitaLand at BUY, on trough valuation, and FNN at HOLD. We still favour Singapore developers with entrenched and diversified overseas exposure.
Risks to our sector view Our cautious view may not materialise in the event that:
1) interest rates stay low for a prolonged period,
2) cooling measures are reversed,
3) pro-immigration policies are renewed,
4) economic recovery turns out stronger than expected, thereby driving up investment sentiment, and 5) completion of supply is delayed due to a shortage of construction workers. (Read Report)
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Lawsuits may provide answers on $8b meltdown
THE legal action being taken against Goldman Sachs could throw new light on the $8 billion share meltdown in Blumont Group, LionGold Corp and Asiasons Capital last month.
Three investors - Ipco International boss Quah Su Ling and company secretary Ng Su Ling and Blumont executive director James Hong - are reported to be taking the United States bank to court in London.
A fourth investor - Mr Wong Chin Yong, the chief executive of Innopac Holdings - is said to be caught in the same trading debacle involving Goldman.
The issue they have with the global bank raises interesting questions: What caused Goldman to suddenly recall, at a moment's notice, the loans it had extended - using shares in the affected counters as collateral - just two days before their subsequent collapse?
Did any third party benefit from the investors' plight and the plight of others like them - when they were under pressure to redeem their loans - to " short-sell" the shares?
Legal papers filed by Ms Quah and Mr Hong showed that they had owned shares in Blumont, LionGold and Asiasons, which they had pledged to Goldman to secure loans for buying more stock.
Both people had opened accounts with the bank on the recommendation of investment consultant William Chan.
As the value of their share portfolios grew, their loan quantums jumped as well.
Then two days before the calamitous collapse of the three counters on Oct 4, they faced demands from Goldman to repay their loans, with just 90 minutes' notice given.
As Ms Quah related in the legal document backing her suit, she could not repay the $61 million owed to the bank " at such unreasonably short notice" , and so was served with a notice of default, close-out and termination via e-mail at 1.37pm that day.
Forced-selling of her shares started soon after.
Ms Quah and Mr Hong also alleged in court filings that despite their proposals to try to settle the loans, Goldman continued to sell the shares that had been pledged with it.
Another interesting observation that emerged from Ms Quah's recounting of the events was that Goldman was able to sell some of her Asiasons shares on Oct 2 and Oct 3 without encountering a big correction in its stock price
But on Friday, Oct 4, shortly after opening bell, Blumont, LionGold and Asiasons suffered huge plunges in their share prices.
This forced the Singapore Exchange (SGX) to suspend their trading to " safeguard the interests of the market as there could be circumstances that would result in the market not being fully informed" .
Similarly, Ipco and Innopac shares plummeted sharply in price, possibly on concerns over the exposure Ms Quah and Mr Wong had to the affected counters.
Interestingly, when the SGX allowed trading of the three counters to resume the following Monday, on Oct 7, it took the highly unusual step of labelling them as designated shares, meaning contra trading and short-selling were banned.
In hindsight, the three counters made easy prey for short-sellers who may have come to know that Goldman was forced-selling a large amount of stock on the open market.
By " designating" the counters, was the SGX taking pre-emptive action to stop them from benefiting from the chaos?
As it is, extensive damage has been done to the penny-stock market with the share prices of Blumont, LionGold and Asiasons plunging by as much as 90 per cent in the past two months, causing huge losses to brokerages, remisiers and retail investors.
These include AmFraser Securities, which faced a potential loss of up to RM120 million (S$47 million) over the three stocks, and US-based Interactive Brokers, which said it might end up in the red to the tune of about US$68 million (S$85 million).
A number of remisiers in other brokerages were also said to have been hit with losses of a few million dollars each, while Mr Wira Dani Abdul Daim - the son of former Malaysian finance minister Daim Zainuddin - has had his Liongold shares forced-sold.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore and the SGX are " conducting an extensive review of the activities around these stocks" .
Hopefully, they will be able to give the investing public some answers as to what exactly transpired in those frantic days.
Whatever their findings, Straits Times reader Tan Kok Thye aptly wrote in an e-mail that investors will always look back with horror that $8 billion could be wiped out just like that in a small stock market like Singapore, in such a short span of time.
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CapitaLand - Building an edge in China [ OP/◄ ► - S$3.01/TP:3.96 - Coy Flash -27/11 ]
Our recent ground checks on CapLand?s China projects suggest that it is gradually establishing an edge in large-scale mixed developments. Asset build is on track and retail footfalls are encouraging. Its attitude of improving returns at the project level is also a positive, in our view. We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% but keep our target price, based on a 20% discount to RNAV. CapLand remains an Outperform, with catalysts from more capital recycling and yield uplifts.
https://brokingrfs.cimb.com/uCKqj_-xpK3xiVaddYpiRnykWjKQsQTh6ke3slwXTs8R7PAdBY1ocruItQqkLvb-y_tHxN9Pf7g1.pdf
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Building an edge in China
Our recent ground checks onCMA?s retail malls in China reinforceour view that asset management remains its edge over local developers. Asset build is on track, footfalls are encouragingand more malls are maturing. Weexpect its operational metrics to improve in FY14-15.
We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% and nudge upour target price (still based on 10% discount to RNAV) for slightly higher rental estimates after our China trip. We reiterate our Outperform rating, with rental yield improvements and potential asset recyclingbeing the catalysts.
What Happened
We toured some of CMA?sprojects in Shanghai and Guangzhou, and also interacted with senior management and ground staff last week.
What We Think
We noticed distinct improvements in retail footfalls at CMA?s Raffles City (RC) Shanghai and Hongkou Plaza sinceour last visit in 2012. This asset, which was acquired at c.4.5% yield on cost in 2011, will beentering its first renewal cycle in 2014. Like its other more mature malls in its portfolio, CMA is confident of getting 15-20% rental reversionson the back of c.6-7% retail sales growth per year. We think this is achievable. We alsovisited its latest brownfield development in Guangzhou (Baiyun) and believe that this mall can achieve or even beat CMA?s growth targets
come lease renewal season in 2017-18. A solid location (only mall in the area connected to a train station) and lack of comparable malls in the vicinityare the positives.We retain our view that CMA?s retail malls located in tier-1 citiesin China are well managed and well positioned for rental growth. However, Tier-2 malls,while seeing better footfalls, havenot yet reached the level seen in tier-1 cities. Overall, we believe the demand landscape for mid-tier malls and product offeringsin China arestronger than the luxury segment as price points are more in sync with the reported median income. This, in our view, is CMA?s strong suit. Our walkabout in Shanghai?s more upscalemalls on a Sat afternoon indicatedlow footfall.
Our conversation with CMA?s CEO, Mr Lim Beng Chee, suggests a strong FY14-15to come, underpinned by asset completions and rental reversions asthe2011 and 2012 batch of retail malls enter theirfirst lease renewal cycle.
What You Should Do
We maintain an Outperform stance as more of its retail malls will mature in FY14-15.
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